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Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar
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Tuesday, July 14, 1998
The wrong inflation
One optimistic theory being aired is that an increase in inflationary expectations is necessary to get the economy back on the growth path. The argument is probably that once people understand prices may be headed steeply upwards, they will rush out and start buying, resulting in an increase in aggregate demand. Votaries of this latest fad will find much comfort from the increase in the rate of inflation. This has been creeping up all through the year, and spurted up by 0.55 percentage points during the week to touch a 70-week high of 7.41 per cent for the week ended June 27. Unfortunately for the theory, however, inflationary expectations have been rising continuously throughout the year, and especially after the presentation of the budget, but this doesn't seem to have had much of an impact on either demand or investment.It is often pointed out that a bit of inflation is good for the economy, as it imparts a buoyancy to government revenues and helps companies realise better prices. Profits increaseinitially as inventories bought at lower price levels are sold at high prices. Wages react with a lag, giving an opportunity for increasing profits and improving cash flow. These are the reasons why businessmen are often ambivalent about a moderate dose of inflation. In terms of the old Phillips curve, there is a clear trade-off between unemployment and inflation. All this, however, depends very much on the nature of the inflationary pressures. Unfortunately, we have the wrong kind of inflation. The main push behind the current rise in prices is not demand-pull, but cost-push. Prices of primary food articles have risen by 9.72 per cent this fiscal, while the price of vegetables have gone up by a hefty 55 per cent. The prices of potatoes, onions and ginger have flared up in recent weeks. In sharp contrast, the increase in prices of manufactured articles has been only 1.74 per cent this year. Apart from vegetables, the other articles where inflation has been high are high speed diesel oil and electricity. Themain reason for the rise in prices is the shortage in agricultural commodities as a result of the negative growth in agricultural production during 1997-98. Add to that the depreciation in the value of the rupee, and the increase in duties imposed by the budget, and the situation is tailor-made for high cost-push inflation. This kind of inflation merely pushes up costs throughout the economy, costs which cannot be passed on by businesses in the backdrop of weak demand. That is a surefire recipe for stagflation. Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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