"The extent of production loss till June has been over 15,000 tonnes. It is still not clear how long it will take to resume full-scale operations," chairman N Johri told The Financial Express.

Officials said that only 231 out of a total of 430 pots at the Angul smelter are currently operational. Taking into account the production loss for July, the figure is nearly 20,000 tonnes, the officials added.

At an average price of Rs 70,000 a tonne, the production loss translates into a revenue loss of around Rs 140 crore till now in 1998-99, as per preliminary estimates made by the company. The revenue losses will rise significantly depending on the time it will take to resume full-scale operations.

The ministry of mines has already appointed a special technical committee under the chairmanship ofHindustan Aeronautics chairman to look into the matter. Nalco had set itself a production target of 218,000 tonnes, equivalent to its installed capacity. It also planned to debottleneck the smelter, which would activate another 50 smelting pots (taking the total number to 480 pots), increasing the installed capacity to 230,000 tonnes by the end of the financial year.

In terms of capacity, the public-sector major has recently been overtaken by the AV Birla group's Hindalco Industries, which has a capacity of 242,000 tonnes. Nalco is also the highest export earner among the domestic aluminium producers. The loss in foreign exchange earnings for the company is not expected to be significant as international aluminium prices are at a four-year low. Despite low London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, domestic primary producers of aluminium face no threat from imports as the four per cent additional import duty on the metal, as proposed in the union budget, coupled with declining value of the rupee, has made importsprohibitive.

"Hence this production loss of around 15,000 tonne or more will not result in an inventory pile-up for the company. If the situation persists for long, domestic prices may remain bouyant as there will be a shortage in supply, Nalco being one of the largest players. The downstream producers are unlikely import any significant quantity of primary aluminium this financial year," industry experts say.