Called Solution for Mass Rapid Transit (SMART), a study to assess its feasibility is being conducted by a consortium comprising Germany-based Rainmain Services, Tewet, DE Consultants and the Tata Consultancy Services.

According to consultant Krishnan Lal, MUTP-II, so far all solutions have focussed on augmenting capacity, both road and rail on the north-south axis. Supplementing this with east-west transit systems would considerably ease the pressure on the north-south rail and road corridors.

The rationale for the fresh approach comes from some emerging patterns in Mumbai's traffic. For instance, according to the Atkins report, considered one of the most comprehensive reports on traffic patterns in Mumbai,population in south Mumbai will decline from 32.70 lakhs in the 1991 census to 30 lakhs by 2011, and employment is also expected to decline from 15 lakhs in 1993 to 13.1 lakhs in 2011.

By contrast, population in the western suburbs (Andheri -- Vasai Virar) is expected to more than double from 5.68 lakhs to 12 lakhs by 2011. Yet employment is likely to increase only marginally from 1 lakh to 1.5. The big boom is expected to be in the northeastern suburbs (Thane, Dombivli, Kalyan) where population will jump from 28.62 lakhs to 46 lakhs and employment 8.5 lakhs to 12.5 lakhs by 2011.

The flow of traffic is also showing signs of change. A few years ago, during rush hours, north- bound trains were relatively empty. No longer. There has also been a sharp increase in traffic between Bandra and Borivli. There is also a surge in east-west traffic especially along three corridors - Santa Cruz-Chembur, Andheri-Ghatkopar and Jogeshwari-Mulund. In the absence of east-west mass transit systems, most of these commutersend up using the north-south corridor to the extent possible.

Given the development pattern expected in the future, the areas seeing an economic boom will have to be provided direct access. Another significant change is the attitude of the state government. Given the urgency of Mumbai's problems, it has decided not to depend on the ministry of railways, which has its own priorities, to provide the answer.

For rail projects approved under the MUTP-II, the railways and the state government have already agreed to share the cost equally. These comprise mainly increasing capacity and replacing equipment. But as far as providing complementary services are concerned, the state has decided to go alone.

According to transport experts, a state-run system, whose fares are not tied to a nationwide tariff structure, would find funding a little easier to come by. Given the Mumbai commuter's greater ability and willingness to pay, the services are expected to be a little more profitable.

For the government, theoptions are limited. An underground metro is being seen as an extremely expensive proposition. For instance, a Colaba to Bandra-Kurla underground metro, as proposed by the Mumbai Metro Planning group, is expected to cost Rs 14,861 crore. The final report submitted by the group has already established the bankability of the project.

However, a lot would depend on value capture tax revenue. Whether the state government would be willing to impose taxes such as employers tax, location benefit tax or metro taxes, remains an uncertain factor.

There is also a large component of private sector participation. Given the current economic slowdown, how many industrial groups will be willing to take exposure - another unknown.

But high costs and doubtful private sector participation apart, the most important factor going against the present underground metro plan is that it does not touch the northern suburbs, nor the growth centres of the next decade - areas that have become the transport authorities' mostimportant concern.

A possibility being considered is a light rail transit system that would not be an alternative, but would complement and ease pressure on the north- south rail corridor - currently comprising six corridors, two on the western railway, two on the central railway, the harbour line, and a corridor connecting a western suburb, Andheri, to the harbour line.

Estimated to cost Rs 40 crore per kilometre, a total of 40 km of a light rail transit system would cost Rs 1,600 crore. Currently, the consortium comprising SMART is studying traffic patters in the circular region of VT, Churchgate and World Trade Centre, to determine the nature of commuter traffic.

While this study will be submitted in October this year, that for the whole of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region will be ready by March next year. Whatever may be the findings of SMART, the two new approaches - first, that the northern suburbs are now a priority and second, that the state government has taken on the responsibility of betterurban transport, until now be a responsibility of the Centre.