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Monday, July 6, 1998

Foreign appetite for Seoul's steel giant, Pohang Iron doubt 

Jane Lee  
Seoul, July 5: South Korea plans to fling open the doors of the world's second largest steel-maker Pohang Iron & Steel (POSCO) to foreign investors next month, but analysts doubt if they will come running through.

The long-coveted blueprint to privatise POSCO was released on Friday along with plans to sell all or part of the government's stake in 10 other state-invested firms.

Analysts and brokers unanimously welcomed the plan, which could increase the steel-maker's efficiency, but were cautious over its lack of detail and remained sceptical about the government's execution of it.

``There has been so much talk in the market that POSCO's foreign limit would be scrapped and it still hasn't been. Now it's like a crying wolf and the market is sceptical about the announcement,'' said a broker Choi Chung-ho at Shinheung Securities.

The Planning and Budget Commission blueprint said a 26.7 per cent stake in POSCO held by the government and the Korea Development Bank would be sold to local and foreigninvestors.

The commission director Jin Nyum told reporters the current 30 per cent cap on foreign ownership in POSCO would be scrapped in August -- news that pushed POSCO shares up more than 10 per cent to 48,300 won ($35.50) in Saturday trade.

But scrapping the limit would not guarantee a continued boost in POSCO's share price or a hoard of foreign buyers rushing in, analysts said.

``Every time POSCO has increased share availability, the share price has collapsed afterwards,'' said a steel analyst Chong Kim at Jardine Fleming in Seoul.

POSCO hit a year high at 85,000 won in March with local investors expecting an expansion of foreign ownership limits. But by May 25, when the cap was lifted to 30 per cent from 25 per cent, the price fell to 52,100 won. In June, it fell further to 36,600.

POSCO's downward spiral in the second quarter followed the general market trend amid concern of another financial crisis in the second half of the year.

Kim said Jardine Fleming believed POSCO shares would likelybe hit as trade in them became more liquid. ``Over the short- to medium-term, getting rid of the limit is actually going to put more selling pressure on the stock,'' said Kim. ``If there's a (crisis) panic and a rush to get out, liquid stocks, essentially blue chips, will go first, and POSCO's going to be one of them.''

Foreigners have filled the 30 per cent quota for POSCO, making it, at present, an illiquid stock to foreigners, and adding caution to selling.Analysts also said foreigners would take a wait-and-see stance until details of the government plan becomes clear. Director at ING Baring Securities, Joon Choi said how the government unloads its stake is the key to success. ``Some investors have been sceptical about POSCO's long-term future because of subsidies (of steel) to other businesses, made possible due to the government stake,'' said Choi.

``A domestic consortium of carmakers, steelmakers and construction firms could take the bulk of stake to prevent the foreign management.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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