The finance ministry's Economic Survey released in May this year, for instance says that "cotton crop has suffered considerable damage in Kharif 1997. Unfavourable climatic conditions in Andhra Pradesh together with widespread infestation of pests and diseases may result in a sharp decline in 1997-98 crop to just 11.4 million bales from the preceding year's output of 14.3 million bales.

However, sources point out that more than 135 lakh bales had actually arrived while this forecast of 114 lakh bales was being given out. It would be irrational to estimate the crop at a level lower than actual receipts.

Sources argue that while giving out this unrealistic crop estimates the authorities concerned apparently did not pay any attention to actual arrivals or cross-check their information withother official agencies like the Textiles Ministry and Cotton Corporation of India or with the ginning and pressing factories which are expected to maintain records of cotton bales pressed by them.

One may argue that the finance ministry may not have with it, while finalising its Economic Survey the latest figures of cotton arrivals up to end May 1998. However, such an argument, according to experts, may not hold water, since actual receipts had already crossed this forecast even before the end of April 1998.

It can of course be argued that the the ministry may be obtaining its cotton crop information from the agriculture ministry. Even if it is so that may not absolve it, according to exports, from its duty to cross-check such facts particularly when the masses including economists, bankers and educationists take for granted the reliability and authenticity of information carried by the Economic Survey.

In regard even to the previous season's cotton production, while other official agencies say that itwas to the order of 177.90 lakh bales, the Survey strangely says that it was just 143 lakh bales, regardless of the fact that mill consumption alone in that year was officially placed at 150.41 lakh bales and the country was able to effect the highest ever exports of 16.82 lakh bales. Had the crop been just to the order of 143 lakh bales, this would not have been possible. It is no surprise, if the International Cotton Advisory Committee treats with contempt the cotton crop data made available by the agriculture ministry and prefers to go by the information available from the textile ministry's Cotton Advisory Board or the Cotton Corporation of India.