They say export-driven businesses -- particularly of software companies -- will lead the growth charts, with a jump in income and profits due to the depreciation in the rupee.

The release of 1998-99 first-quarter results begins in a week.

"Software companies could easily see upwards of 50 per cent growth in earnings," said Dil Vikas Finance president R Balakrishnan said.

Software exports will be boosted further by the sharp fall in the rupee's value against the dollar. Year-on-year the rupee has tumbled nearly 16 per cent against the dollar.

The rupee closed last week at 42.44/47 per dollar compared to about 35.70 a year ago.

Many software companies, including Infosys Technologies, earn more than 90 per cent of their income from exports. Software firms posted the strongest earnings in 1997-98, with growthranging from 58 per cent to 147 per cent.

Banks would also do well because of a pick-up in loan advances in the last quarter of 1997/98, analysts said.

"The full impact of this would be felt in the first quarter," ABN Amro Equities India research head Devesh Kumar says.

But fresh loan advances are likely to decline in the first quarter because of the traditional slack season. This would be compounded by the delayed budget, which has deterred fresh commitments by companies.

The annual budget is traditionally unveiled on the last day of February, but was delayed this year due to general elections. It was presented to parliament on June 1.

Net profits of leading companies that make up the benchmark 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange index grew by an average of 10 per cent in 1997-98 against a decline of 2 per cent in the previous year, Kumar said.

Lower interest costs, benefits of restructuring and steady growth led to the improved earnings, he said.

But the manufacturing sector had fared poorly, saidDilVikas's Balakrishnan. Heavy trucks, cement, steel and capital goods industries were squeezed by a slowing economy and cheaper imports.

Among these, only the cement sector was expected to fare better in the first quarter -- helped by a pick-up in demand, analysts said.

Petrochemicals giant Reliance Industries would show robust year-on-year growth in the first quarter because of the benefits from higher capacities, analysts said.

A 4 per cent import duty on most products, provided by finance minister Yashwant Sinha in his June 1 budget, would give petrochemical and steel companies relief from cheaper imports. But this benefit would be felt in the second quarter, they said.

The rupee's depreciation by about 6.5 per cent since early May, when nuclear tests and economic sanctions led foreign funds to pull out, would also help domestic industry compete against imports.

For pharmaceuticals, the April-June quarter is the second-best period traditionally -- sales are at a peak during the July-Septembermonsoon season -- and should post about 20 per cent growth.

Fast moving consumer goods, led by multinational firms, would also do well, analysts said. But truck companies Tata Engineering and Locomotive Company and Ashok Leyland may slip into the red, they said.

"In the first quarter of 1998-99, the total industry sales have been half of the comparable period in 1997-98," Ashok Leyland managing director R Seshasayee told reporters last week.