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Monday, June 29, 1998

Reddy money 

 
The point in favour of the report on analytics and methodology of compilation of money supply data is that it provides the public a glimpse into the components of money supply, including those that are yet to be captured. Deputy governor YV Reddy's report also brings out the distinction between monetary and other financial aggregates. Because the issues are esoteric, baring them for public discussion is a good idea. The trouble is that the rationale of the report is not clear: are current measurements inadequate, and if so why? Is the Reddy report a presentation of the state of the art or will the measurements it proposes further the objectives of central banking policy? The report talks of ``an unidirectional short term deviation from the long run equilibrium path which needs to be captured in terms of other relevant variables to ensure predictive accuracy''. This advocates dependence on statistical tools. But a central bank's policy position is as much judgmental as statistical. Policy cannot react toconform to a statistical model: ex post adjustments (error corrections) will deprive economic agents of a stable policy regime.

The Reddy report has distinguished itself by bringing out the difference between monetary and other financial aggregates. The latter is all about liquidity, which is of interest to business. The report highlights the significance of M2. It also broadens the definition of bank credit to include credit from the financial system. This is analytically significant for assessing the adequacy of money supply. So long as money supply growth results in an increase in liabilities of banks and other financial intermediaries, funds are available to organised business. But when part of the money supply expansion results in increases in liabilities outside the organised financial system (cash in hand being an obvious example), corporates may complain of inadequate liquidity. However, statistically capturing all other financial intermediaries may not be feasible.

The Reddy report talks of broadmoney, but leaves credit and debit cards out of its purview on the ground that they do not call for a redefinition of money stock ``although they may lead to a higher velocity of money''. The implicit policy suggestion here is that high powered money should be reduced. But in the private clearing system of credit and debit cards, only net amounts change hands; so velocity may actually go down! The Reddy report will need to be gone into carefully and its analytics debated.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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