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Wednesday, June 10, 1998

Take this stability in prices with a pinch of salt 

K Seshadri  
The volatility in stock prices noticed on Monday was replaced with far more stable movements as well as stabilising of quotes. The Sensex has gained 52 points today to close at 3468. It has also gained 42 points over the opening. This is a healthy sign of recovery. In fact, several scrips have closed higher. But low volumes indicate that operators are still cautious. The technical indicator for the Sensex is yet to signal a buy. This is understandable. The index has been sliding day after day and closing lower.

Today is the first day when the index has closed higher. Technical indicators look for some more confirmation. This confirmation could come with one more day of stable performance. In contrast, the rising trend in stock prices is clearly points towards opportunities. Tuesday's trading was marked by stability in stock prices. Some of them moved up towards the close. Such a stability could also be an indication of priming for a move up. But as any cautious investor would do, you need to look at thisstability with suspicion. Tuesday being the closing day for the NSE week, the market could have well seen covering of shorts, in addition to shifting positions to BSE.

So one should take this stability with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, punters could well be planning to use such apparent stability to push up values again. We advise our readers to take advantage. In other words, there is a good chance that the market could acquire a bullish undertone tomorrow. The cautious could wait until the technicals do signal a buy, which may take a day more, assuming that the market moves up. On the other hand you could lose on the opportunity. This writer suggests taking calculated risk on fundamentally strong scrips, which would also be long term candidates at current price levels.

As you buy in you might as well remember this. Some scrips have made some sizeable gains from the bottom. Such scrips could attract profit booking, taking advantage of any surge due to Wednesday opening.

Therefore it would still beadvisable to temper your approach and not plunge in at prices at flared heights. Once the market starts moving up even those who get in at such flared prices may get rewarded handsomely. On the other hand, you could also lose, as the market is just trying to surf up. There could be troughs yet.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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