The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine has a clear edge over the rival Congress-BSP-CPI alliance in this "waveless" election in Punjab which has sent 13 members to the Lok Sabha.Both the parties of the alliance have been able to maintain cordial relations so far, despite occasional differences and jointly campaigning in all constituencies, except Jalandhar which Akalis have left for prime minister I K Gujral.
Another factor favouring the alliance is that it has been in power for just a year, too short a period for the people to get disenchanted.
Exuding confidence to "sweep the polls", Punjab finance minister and Akali Dal general secretary Kanwaljit Singh told The Financial Express that "we are going to polls on the basis of our performance and as a consequence of round satisfaction with it. We hope to bag all the seats that we are contesting."
Congress general secretary Jagmohan Singh Kang contesting against the Akalis, claims that "the SAD-BJP popularity graph has gone down sharply because offalse slogans and non-performance."
"Fearing humiliation," he says, "they have not mustered the courage to hold panchayat elections, a constitutional obligation. Even municipal elections were held only after the high court intervened."
Kang claims his party would not only gain from the "estrangement" of the people with the "communal alliance" but the BSP and CPI vote bank would also help "our secular alliance". In 1996, BSP aligned with the Akalis. Being faction-ridden, however, the party may not be able to translate this optimism into votes. In most of the constituencies, disgruntled partymen are either apathetic or working against official candidates. Faridkot, Gurdaspur and Taran Taran are some examples.
With the fleeing of BSP Supremo Kanshi Ram from the state, the alliance with the party may also not help much. Moreover, the BSP is also a divided house. Not that the Akalis are totally free of malaise as is evident in Sangrur where Surjit Singh Barnala is the party candidate.
However, independentobservers feel that chief minister Parkash Singh Badal's "clean image and humility" would help the alliance. It will also have the advantage of being in power.
The 13 constituencies in the state are spread over 17 districts out of which the Malwa region, where Akalis are dominant, accounts for 11 districts. Strong presence of the Akalis in the rural and of the BJP in the urban areas places the alliance on a firm ground.
The Akali Dal is contesting from eight seats, leaving Amritsar, Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur for BJP and Phillaur for the BSP breakway group Bahujan Samaj Morcha. The Congress is contesting eight seats and supporting BSP in Hoshiarpur, Phillaur, Ferozepur and Ropar and CPI in Bhatinda.
Despite dull electioneering and apparent voter indifference, the contest between the contending alliances is fierce in most of the constituencies. Apart from Jalandhar, Faridkot, Patiala, Sangrur, Gurdaspur and Amritsar involve the future of bigwigs.
While in Faridkot, the chief minister's son and sitting MPSukhbir Singh Badal is the Akali candidate, in Patiala ex-ruler Amarinder Singh is contesting on a Congress ticket. In Gurdaspur, long time MP Sukhbans Kaur Bhinder is pitted against BJP's Vinod Khanna. In Amritsar, Congress candidate former Union Minister R L Bhatia is fighting to retain his seat.
Hazarding a guess, Akalis may maintain their strength of eight in the next Lok Sabha also. However, in the industrial town of Ludhiana, the CPI support and Sonia's visit may boost the chances of the Congress candidate.
BJP which had fought the last Parliamentary elections alone and unsuccessfully contested six seats, this time appears to be sure to win the Hoshiarpur seat where its candidate is ex-Congressman Kamal Choudhary. If people vote for the film star, it might also annex Gurdaspur.
Congress is likely to retain the present Amritsar and Gurdaspur seats and a stands good chances in Ludhiana too.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
