Feb 15: Notwithstanding the incumbency factor, over 120 suicides by cotton farmers, reneging on the Rs 2 a kg rice scheme and prohibition, the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) could well scrape past the two-digit figure in the polls for the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh.Considering the odds against him and the fact that pollsters have all but written him off, this nevertheless would be a commendable performance by the one man-army called Chandrababu Naidu.
The Congress understandably is expected to be the significant gainer. Though this is on account of the coming together of the various factions within the party and the Sonia wave, the gains however may not be to the extent some party bigwigs in the state have been predicting.
On the other hand, the BJP appears to have lost out on its initial wave despite the stars from the silver screen putting in a guest appearance for the party.
Though a laggard till the week before last, prospects for the Congress have considerably improved with the Soniajuggernaut earlier this week drawing huge crowds and response wherever it went. So much so even before the afterdust of Sonia's helicopter had settled some Congressmen went to the extent of predicting a landslide for the party in the state.
Having said that one is tempted to hark back to the situation in 1996 when yet another widow, Lakshmi Parvathi, had been setting the election trail ablaze with her meetings evoking sympathetic response from the huge crowds. But come election time the lady drew a blank at the hustings making pollsters eat crow.
A similar euphoria elicited by Sonia in the state notwithstanding, the moot point is how much of the crowds would actually translate into votes for the Congress in the state? Or are the crowds there just to get a dekko at Indira Gandhi's bahu and Rajiv's widow.
Though she may have won the hearts of Andhraities in the aftermath of NTR's demise, Lakshmi Parvathi could not win votes nor seats polling just 8.67 per cent of the valid votes cast cutting mainly intothe Congress vote contrary to expectations that she would be the major beneficiary of the TDP vote bank. Another question now is which way this chunk of votes will split considering Lakshmi Parvathi is nowhere in the picture though she is contesting in four constituencies as part of the seat adjustment with the BJP.
However, Naidu's TDP and the Congress are expected to trade some seats with each other in the Telangana and the Circar districts along the coast which accounts for a significant 18 constituencies.
Surprisingly however, despite the contentious cotton and other issues which have had prominent play in Telangana, if present trends are any indications TDP is set to gain. However, it is expected to lose out to the Congress in the coastal districts. All the three incumbent ministers from the party at the centre are expected to lose their seats from the coastal region. The resentment against them from the locals apart one other reason for this trend could be the fact that a resurgent BJP is seen to becutting into the traditional TDP vote. On the contrary however, the TDP is expected to cut into the BJP vote in the Telangana.
However, the faction ridden Rayalseema region, which is set to see some of the most keenly fought contests, presents a different picture. Despite the higher visibility and increased prospects after Sonia's whirlwind tour on Monday in the region, the going could nevertheless be tough considering elections have seldom been contested on issues or party lines here.
While K Vijayabhaskara Reddy is pitted against an equally strong K E Krishnamurthy of the TDP in Kurnool, the nearby Nandyal is set to see a keen tussle between two other faction leaders Gangula Pratap Reddy on the Congress ticket against Bhuma Nagi Reddy of the TP. Likewise in Cuddapah, Y S Rajasekhara Reddy is pitted against Kandula Nagi Reddy of the TDP though he is expected to win with a comfortable majority despite the wafer thin majority in the 1996 elections.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
