US stocks: Outlook for week ahead

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Agencies: New York, Oct 09 2010, 10:36 IST
When the US stock market hit its all-time high some three years ago - three years that somehow seem much, much longer – Bob Auer's life was simply, very, very easy.

Then a broker with Morgan Stanley in Indianapolis, Auer had no trouble convincing clients that they could make money buying stocks.

"You could pick up the phone and get people to do just about anything because everything was working and it had been working for a while," he says.

A bubble fueled for years by easy credit and soaring real estate values stopped expanding on Oct. 9, 2007. That day, the Standard and Poor's 500 hit 1,565. Within a month, it had fallen more than 7 percent as traders began questioning subprime loans.

You know the story from there. Investors who stuck with the market through the worst U.S. financial crisis in 70 years are still down about 20 percent from the boom days after accounting for dividends, wondering whether their accounts will ever recover.

If history is any guide, it may be a while. It took 15 years for investors to recover from the Crash of 1929 if they reinvested their dividends, and 25 years for the stock market to come back if they didn't, according to a study by Ned Davis Research.

While no one is betting that it will take until 2032 for the stock market to fully recover this time, there are signs that investors could be drifting in the doldrums for a while, even after last year's rebound. It took

... contd.

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