US intelligence sees India as economic powerhouse in 2030, China distant 'memory'
and confrontation," it said.
"As with China, a sharp economic downturn - particularly propelled by a political or military crisis¿could quickly have broader regional and global effects," it added.
NIC report said long-term forecasts show Indian economic power growing steadily throughout the 21st century and overtaking China at the end of the century because of China's maturing age structure.
"To maximize its advantage from the greater proportion of youths, however, India will need to boost its educational system, both attainment and quality at lower levels; make substantial governance improvements, particularly in countering corruption; and undertake large-scale infrastructure program to keep pace with rapid urbanization and the needs of a more advanced economy," it said.
The NIC report notes that the current, largely Western dominance of global structures such as the UN Security Council, World Bank, and IMF probably will have been transformed by 2030 to be more in line with the changing hierarchy of new economic players.
"Besides the large emerging powers like Brazil, India (who are not permanent UNSC members), and China (has a veto in UNSC, but not IMF voting rights commensurate with its economic power), many second-tier emerging powers will be making their mark¿at least as emerging regional leaders," it said.
"Just as the larger G-20 - rather than G-7/8 - was energized to deal with the 2008 financial crisis, we expect that other institutions will be updated¿most probably also in response to crises," the report said.
Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative
