US intelligence sees India as economic powerhouse in 2030, China distant 'memory'

Dec 10 2012, 19:14 IST
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National Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today. (Reuters) National Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today. (Reuters)
SummaryNational Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today.

to influence global policies on various issues," it notes.

The NIC report believes that in the world of 2030 ¿ a world in which the growing global population will have reached somewhere close to 8.3 billion people (up from 7.1 billion in 2012) - four demographic trends will fundamentally shape, although not necessarily determine, most countries' economic and political conditions and relations among states.

These trends are: aging both for the West and increasingly most developing states; a still significant but shrinking number of youthful societies and countries; migration, which will increasingly be a cross-border issue; and growing urbaniSation, which will spur economic growth but place new strains on food and water resources.

Among the US Census Bureau's projections for South Asia, only Afghanistan is projected to remain youthful by 2030.

However, the aging that will occur among the large and growing populations in nearby Pakistan and India probably will mask youthful ethnic and regional populations that could remain a security concern, it said.

"In India, where the southern states and large cities have attained low fertility, youthfulness - which can contribute to instability in the absence of employment outlets - is likely to erode more slowly in the central northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar," the NIC report said.

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