US intelligence sees India as economic powerhouse in 2030, China distant 'memory'

Dec 10 2012, 19:14 IST
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National Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today. (Reuters) National Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today. (Reuters)
SummaryNational Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today.

the report said.

India, however, faces many of the same problems and traps accompanying rapid growth as China: large inequities between rural and urban sectors and within society, increasing constraints on resources such as food and water, and a need for greater investment in science and technology in order to continue to move its economy up a notch, the report said.

India's democracy provides it with a safety valve for discontent in a way that China's one-party rule does not.

"At the same time, regional tensions between India and many of its neighbors could threaten India's rise should such tensions explode in conflict and confrontation," it said.

"As with China, a sharp economic downturn - particularly propelled by a political or military crisis¿could quickly have broader regional and global effects," it added.

NIC report said long-term forecasts show Indian economic power growing steadily throughout the 21st century and overtaking China at the end of the century because of China's maturing age structure.

"To maximize its advantage from the greater proportion of youths, however, India will need to boost its educational system, both attainment and quality at lower levels; make substantial governance improvements, particularly in countering corruption; and undertake large-scale infrastructure program to keep pace with rapid urbanization and the needs of a more advanced economy," it said.

The NIC report notes that the current, largely Western dominance of global structures such as the UN Security Council, World Bank, and IMF probably will have been transformed by 2030 to be more in line with the changing hierarchy of new economic players.

"Besides the large emerging powers like Brazil, India (who are not permanent UNSC members), and China (has a veto in UNSC, but not IMF voting rights commensurate with its economic power), many second-tier emerging powers will be making their mark¿at least as emerging regional leaders," it said.

"Just as the larger G-20 - rather than G-7/8 - was energized to deal with the 2008 financial crisis, we expect that other institutions will be updated¿most probably also in response to crises," the report said.

Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines, it said.

According to the report, by 2030, no country - whether the US, China, or any other large country - will be a hegemonic power.

"Enabled by communications technologies, power almost certainly will shift more toward multifaceted and amorphous networks composed of state and non-state actors that will form

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