US intelligence sees India as economic powerhouse in 2030, China distant 'memory'

Dec 10 2012, 19:14 IST
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National Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today. (Reuters) National Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today. (Reuters)
SummaryNational Intelligence Council sees India occupying the pre-eminent position that China does today.

US intelligence has predicted that in 2030, India could be the rising economic powerhouse of the world as China is seen today and that it will continue to consolidate its power advantage over Pakistan.

"In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate - 8 to 10 per cent - will probably be a distant memory by 2030," said the fifth installment of the 'Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds', of National Intelligence Council (NIC), released today.

As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030.

"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," said the report which is aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future.

According to the report, the total size of the Chinese working-age population will peak in 2016 and decline from 994 million to about 961 million in 2030.

"In contrast, India's working-age population is unlikely to peak until about 2050," it said.

"Also of significance, India will most likely continue to consolidate its power advantage relative to Pakistan.

"India's economy is already nearly eight times as large as Pakistan's; by 2030 that ratio could easily be more than 16-to-1," the US report said.

The NIC report said the diffusion of power among countries and from countries to informal networks will have a dramatic impact by 2030, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750 and restoring Asia's weight in the global economy and world politics.

In a tectonic shift, by 2030, Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment.

China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030.

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According to the NIC report, the World Bank assesses that India will join China as an "emerging economy growth pole" by 2025, which could help to strengthen the global economy.

"India's expected robust growth in the next 15-20 years means that its contribution to global growth will surpass that of any individual advanced economy except the United States," it said.

World Bank modeling suggests that together China and India will serve as nearly twice the engine for growth as of the United States and the euro zone combined by 2025,

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