Understanding the power of one

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: future right, it reinforces how unpredictable future is.

As a last example of the unpredictability of change, consider the rise and fall of Encyclopedia Britannica. Arguably, Encyclopedia Britannica invented the category in which it competes. The first edition was published progressively from 1768 to 1771 as Encyclopedia Britannica. When it was completed, it contained 2,391 pages and 160 engraved illustrations in 3 volumes. For more than 200 years, it dominated the category it created. It was considered the most authoritative encyclopedia in the market. By the third edition, published 1788-97, it contained 18 volumes plus a 2-volume supplement of more than 16,000 pages.After the 11th edition (often called the 1911 edition), the trademark and publication rights were sold to Sears Roebuck of Chicago, Illinois. 30 years later, Sears Roebuck offered the rights to the University of Chicago. From then until his death in 1973, William Benton served as the publisher.

For the next decade, Britannica continued to dominate the market. A full set was priced at between $1,500 to $2,000. Then in the mid-1980s a little known company called Microsoft (only 10 years of age) approached Britannica Inc to discuss a potential collaboration.

Britannica turned them down flat. Why would a company with such a stellar brand and reputation team up with an unknown company? Rebuffed, Microsoft used content from Funk & Wagnalls Standard Encyclopedia to create what is now known as Encarta. Executives at Britannica could only smile as desperation drove one of its more lowly esteemed competitors into the arms of such a strange bedfellow as Microsoft. This view was only reinforced by the growing sales at Britannica during the next five years, hitting $650 million in 1990.