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be inflated in a hurry, which adds to the drag on earnings. In America commercial banks set aside $37.1 billion in reserves in the first quarter of 2008, more than four times the amount tucked away in the same period of 2007. Yet still more needs to be done: the “coverage” ratio of reserves to delinquent loans dropped last quarter, as credit conditions worsened (see chart). Procyclical provisioning is the second chapter in the mark-to-market story, says Mark Rennison, the finance chief of Nationwide, Britain’s second-bigger mortgage lender.

It is not all bad news. In both Britain and America the real problems are in the specialist businesses; prime borrowers face headwinds rather than tornadoes. British homebuyers do not face the same steep rises in interest rates that they did during the 1990s downturn. The American housing market is less bad in some places than in others. Banks have been successful at raising capital so far, although that will get harder the more often the begging bowl comes around. But for the first time since the crunch began, you might just prefer to be the boss of an investment bank rather than a commercial one.