The uneven growth in NCR

Nov 03 2012, 09:49 IST
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The NCR is a test case whether planned development can keep pace with realty growth.  (Reuters) The NCR is a test case whether planned development can keep pace with realty growth. (Reuters)
SummaryThe NCR is a test case whether planned development can keep pace with realty growth.

In terms of planned urban growth, the evidence for real estate development being backed by the creation of associated physical infrastructure is higher in Noida and Greater Noida. Gurgaon and Faridabad are at the opposite spectrum, where infrastructure is developed after the real estate potential of an area has been nearly fully exploited. In other words, infrastructure projects in these areas is largely taken up only after an area is already primed for real estate growth. Even so, Gurgaon has seen the maximum capital appreciation for investors and end users.

The upcoming areas of Dwarka Expressway and new sectors on both sides of NH-8 up to Manesar are part of the Master Plan 2021. As a result, infrastructure development in these sectors is now being taken up actively to support the large residential projects expected to reach completion over the next 3-5 years. However, despite this forward-looking approach of capacity building and future planning, it remains to be seen whether the upcoming urban sprawl will be sufficiently supported by necessary infrastructure. Fundamentally, the Master Plan is a statement of intent and not a time-bound guarantee.

But timelines in Master Plans are usually guiding in nature. In other words, though all major milestones to be achieved by the state authority in terms of improved road network, power capacity and sewage treatment facilities are linked to associated timelines, these are mostly indicative. Most of these undertakings are capital-intensive and part of larger infrastructure projects. Thus, there are invariably delays in their execution and subsequent operationalisation. Also, it is only the larger projects to be undertaken by the authorities that have a guidance timelines associated with them.

The ‘future readiness’ of a city can be gauged from its past pace of development, and from what it has already achieved in terms of infrastructure. This usually gives a clear idea of where the city stands in terms of its future planning. The actual rate of population growth in these areas over the next 10-20 years is likely to exceed all previous projections. This means that these satellite cities are poised for a development explosion. With more families moving there, these satellite cities will be seriously challenged in terms of creating sustainable and liveable ecosystems. Noida-Greater Noida, Gurgaon and Faridabad are expected to expand by 6-8 times their current size, with higher valuations for property following naturally on the back of developing infrastructure.

—The author is Senior Manager – Research and Real Estate Intelligence Service, Jones Lang LaSalle India

* NOIDA: Noida-Greater Noida Expressway

Year Value Appreciation as Reasons

(R/ sq ft) per previous year

2012 4,200-6,000 6-10% Overall area development and healthy construction pace

2011 3,800-5,500 25-30% Low prices and launches in well-developed areas

2010 3,000-4,000 (-) 8-10% Slight recovery

2009 3,300-4,200 (-) 15-20% General market turbulence

2008 4,000-4,500 New launches on newly operational expressway

* GURGAON: Dwarka Expressway

2012 4,500-5,200 20-25% Expressway contract awarded and work starts, promises of more infrastructure projects

2011 3,600-4,100 15-20% No movement on expressway construction dampens prices

2010 3,200-3,600 25-30% Low prices in upcoming area with promise of connectivity to Delhi and the metro network

2009 2,450-2,800 (-) 8-11% Market slowdown

2008 2,700-3,100 Expressway announcement leads to new launches

* GURGAON: NH-8

2012 4,300-5,000 22-26% Big township projects announced, with other major developers already present. Multiple choices and improvement in connectivity with construction of internal roads

2011 3200-3,600 16-18% Slow pace of KMP expressway, arterial roads yet to be developed

2010 2,700-3,000 20-25% Launch of townships by realty majors, multiple offerings and connectivity through NH-8

2009 2,200-2,400 (-) 8-11% Low prices cause slight correction in slowdown

2008 2,400-2,550 New areas opened on NH-8, but prices low due to distance

* GURGAON: SOHNA ROAD

2012 6,500-7,200 22-25% Master plan for Sohna announced, land unlocked for residential projects. Developers allowed to construct internal roads leading to their projects. Most projects closer to delivery. Social infrastructure active.

2011 5,200-6,000 15-20% High number of launches, but slow pace of infrastructure development

2010 4,500-5,000 28-36% Market recovery and numerous launches with good connectivity to Sohna Road sees home buyer interest

2009 3,300-3,900 (-) 3-5% Market slowdown, but area attractiveness sees decline to low single digits

2008 3,500-4,000 Numerous launches announced

* FARIDABAD

2012 2,400-2,750 6-10% Slow infrastructure growth, projects on NH-2 see rise as metro reaches Badarpur border. Projects with good construction activity see marginal growth

2011 2,250-2,500 11-15% Affordability a positive factor, but competition with better developed Noida sees selective demand for few projects

2010 1,950-2,250 8-11% Announcement of metro and promise of better connectivity

2009 1,800-2,000 (-) 5-8% Low prices see only marginal correction

2008 1,900-2,100 New area called Nahar Par or Greater Faridabad offers lowest project prices

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