SW Monsoon makes weathermen happy

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The South-West Monsoon may have made the weathermen happy as their forecast have come true, but the erratic rains in July have caused a setback to coarse cereals, pulses and commercial crops like oilseeds, sugarcane, jute and cotton.

The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department had on June 30 predicted that the average cumulative monsoon rainfall over the country in the 4-month monsoon season beginning June 1 would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm subjected to a model error of +/-4%. With the close of the monsoon season on September 30, the country has registered an average cumulative rainfall of 98% of the LPA. IMD's earlier forecast made on April 16, this year about rainfall amounting to 99% of LPA with a model error of +/-5% also proved to be correct.

FE on September 29 had analysed the rainfall data and had said that IMD's forecast for the country and three homogenous regions would prove to be correct.

Briefing newspersons in Capital on Wednesday, the IMD director general Ajit Tyagi said : "Our long range forecast for the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and over different homogenous regions with the exception of northwest India have been accurate.". He also praised the efficacy of models deployed for the forecast

The IMD's miserably failed in predicting the rainfall in July, the month crucial for sowing operations. IMD had said that the July rainfall over the country would be 98% of the LPA of 29.3 cm with a model error of +/-9%, while it proved out to be 83% of the LPA. Taiga in an apologetic tone said : "The prediction overestimated the July rainfall for the country as a whole."