Shocker: India's economic growth rate for 2012-13 to plunge to 5%, says govt
a correct way. In the past also, the quarterly (GDP) data was very frequently adjusted."
According to Ahluwalia, the CSO ignored the uptrend in growth towards the second half of the fiscal while computing the data for the whole financial year.
The data suggests that services sector including finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors are likely to grow by 8.6 per cent this fiscal, against 11.7 per cent last fiscal.
On the positive side, mining and quarrying is likely be slightly better at 0.4 per cent, compared to contraction of growth of 0.6 per cent a year ago. Growth in construction is also likely to be 5.9 per cent in 2012-13, against 5.6 per cent last year.
INSTANT VIEWS/COMMENTARY
SHUBHADA RAO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, YES BANK, MUMBAI:
"The imputed growth for second half FY13 is at 4.7 percent. In our opinion, it is likely to be revised upward.
The main reasons for this considerable slowdown is a sharp correction in services at 6.6 per cent, led by trade and finance. The base effect in Q4 is positive, despite which, the numbers are projected lower which implies sharp sequential worsening of economic activity.
We have been anticipating marginal improvement in Q4 on the back of a small pick up in investments."
UPASNA BHARDWAJ, ECONOMIST, ING VYSYA BANK, MUMBAI
"While the slowdown in overall GDP estimates have been widely expected, the slowdown in services, particularly the trade, hotels, transport, communication category has been sharper than anticipated.
Moreover, the sharp slowdown clearly points towards continued slack in consumption demand, which is expected to
