Rupee to dollar: Heading into Budget, expect a ranged market

Jul 07 2014, 21:12 IST
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Indian rupee did not draw cues from the upswing in the domestic equity markets.(Reuters) Indian rupee did not draw cues from the upswing in the domestic equity markets.(Reuters)
SummaryTechnically, as long as the pair holds above 59.30/50 region, possibility of another push towards 60.50/60 remains.

Rupee lost most of the ground that it has gained over the previous week, against the Greenback. The pair closed around the level of 60.01 on spot, up around 0.47% for the day. A relatively weak trend in the Asian and EM currencies and intraday decline in the majors like Euro and Pound, lifted the US Dollar higher against the Indian Rupee. Large bids were heard to have surfaced from a couple of large custodial banks and also a couple of state run banks were looking to intervene on behalf of the central bank. Once Rupee dropped below 59.90, some stops got triggered in the interbank, as dealers and specs covered some of their US Dollar shorts. The pair touched an intraday high 60.05 but settled around 60.01. Offshore forwards and futures traded at a discount to onshore derivatives@ 18/23 paise, basis 30 days from cash.†

Over this week, traders and commercials would keep a close eye on the upcoming Union Budget. With domestic equity markets trading at an all time high, hopes are sky-high going into the Budget on 10th July. We hope that the FM is able to provide a credible roadmap for fiscal consolidation as well as provide believable steps towards removal of the structural impediments facing the domestic economy. There is little fiscal elbow room but ample scope to be innovative and offer a fresh start to policy making in the country. Indian economy needs tax reform and ease in doing business. A decisive policy document on 10th, will be positive for the Rupee. However, disappointment can also lead to a 0.5/1.00% decline in the currency.†

Traders will also keep an eye on the May's industrial growth data from India. In the global markets, there are couple of key economic data points: viz, industrial production stat from France, Japan and UK. UK GDP estimate for the month of June, Chinese trade data, US JOLTS survey and Bank of England policy meeting will also be watched. Over the near term, a range of 59.50/70 and 60.15/30 is expected on spot.

By Anindya Banerjee, currency analyst, Kotak Securities

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