RBI to hold interest rates in Dec, cut 50 bps in Jan-March: Poll
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, according to a new poll, with respondents split over whether it will cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks - effectively throwing cold water on expectations to the contrary.
The Reserve Bank of India has left rates on hold since a 50 basis point cut in April, and expectations for a further cut have been pushed from December into the first quarter of 2013 following guidance by the central bank in late October.
Of 41 analysts polled, 37 expect the RBI to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 8 percent in December. Respondents were almost evenly divided on expectations for a cut in CRR, a tool the Reserve Bank of India has been using to ease a cash crunch and prod banks to loosen lending rates. At 4.25 percent, CRR is at its lowest since 1976.
Of the 33 respondents, 16 expect a CRR cut on Tuesday of either 25 or 50 basis points, while most also expect a further CRR cut in the March quarter.
While expectations are near-unanimous for an interest rate cut in the March quarter, 20 of 36 respondents expect 50 basis points of cuts, which is deeper than the 25 basis point expected in the October pre-policy poll.
The RBI is expected to review monetary policy in January and again in March. "Given the fact that growth is in shambles, and inflation is sort of coming under control,
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