With the rupee always threatening to go out of control—it has depreciated 11.5% since the beginning of the year—RBI has gone and tightened liquidity further, in keeping with what other emerging markets like Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey have done in recent months. Whether that will work is not clear—the results have been mixed in the countries which have hiked rates—but it is consistent with what RBI wanted to do, to make it unprofitable for those trying to speculate on the rupee. Last week, by contrast, while RBI said it was trying to suck out liquidity, it actually ended up relaxing liquidity by giving banks the chance to mop up Rs 2.1 lakh crore at the lower repo rate and by offering mutual funds special repo windows and by refusing to sell government bonds at higher yields. The problem with the strategy is that it is a very high risk one, with the downside looking dangerous. If the move does indeed convince market-participants—exporters who are delaying bringing back dollars and importers who are trying to hedge the bets before things get worse—that RBI is serious in defending the rupee, and it stabilises at current levels or even lower, it will have worked. Once the rupee stabilises, given the high differential between US and Indian rates—around 10-11% now—you could have FII inflows in the debt market once again. On Wednesday, after 10 trading sessions, where the FIIs withdrew $894 million from the debt market, they brought back $8.9 million; in the case of equity markets, they brought in $37 million on Wednesday—all told, FIIs withdrew $2.5 billion from July 1 to 15 when RBI first tightened liquidity and this reduced to $373 million between July 16 and July 23. Even though yield differences are very high, investors will not want to bring in funds since this can get wiped out with a depreciation of the rupee—so the rupee stabilising is critical.
The risk, however, lies in the possibility that market participants may not get convinced in the absence of other concrete measures by the government to attract investors—keep in mind that while the