'RBI must enter forex market to support Rupee, curb inflation'
Stating that lending rate cuts and higher forex reserves hold keys to the market and growth recovery, a BoA-ML India report authored by its chief economist Indranil Sen Gupta said, "The rupee will remain volatile till RBI recoups the forex reserves of USD 65 billion, including the forwards which it had sold since the 2008 global credit crisis following the fall of Lehman Brothers."
On imported inflation, it said a 10 per cent fall in the rupee translates itself into a 100 bps rise in inflation.
Stating that non-intervention is the reason for the rupee fall, it noted that RBI is not buying forex to comfort the market because it thinks that market may sell the rupee due to a forex shortage which will further fuel inflationary pressures.
The report notes that "in September-November 2011, the steep 13.4 per cent of the rupee depreciation was, after all, aggravated by payment of bunched up dues of about USD 5 billion to Iran for oil imports. A 10 per cent depreciation of the currency typically translates into 100 bps of inflation."
The rupee is the second worst performer among the BRICs currencies, after the Brazilian real, losing nearly 19 percent since September 2011, the report said.
Last Friday, the rupee hit a two-month low of 55.15