R could remain at roughly the same level through the year
How did you arrive at the growth estimates?
According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the Indian economy grew 6.5% last year. We believe that there could be some underestimation in this. When the final numbers come, there could be some increase in the growth rate for both the agriculture and industrial production for 2011-12. Nevertheless, we must accept the fact that growth has slowed down and, in 2011-12, the growth was perhaps one of the lowest in recent years.
As for 2012-13, we have looked at the projected performances in the various sectors and aggregated (them to arrive at the our estimates). Our estimate is composed of an improved performance in the industry, whereas, in agriculture, we project a growth of 0.5%. Even while predicting drought, the available data on behaviour of the monsoon indicate that we would be better off than we were in the drought year 2009, which nevertheless saw farm sector growth of 1%.
This year, the monsoon is not that bad and the actual growth rate can be better than 0.5% we have estimated. But we are
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