Qualms with music

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: diminish, says Mark Mulligan of Jupiter, another market-research firm. Either the labels will have to make do with less, or other firms, such as the mobile operators, will have to pitch in. Consumers are unlikely to contribute much, simply because they will refuse to: take-up of subscription-based music services has been disappointing so far.

Even if the sums do add up, the new model may face other problems. To start with, the services will be available in only a few countries and will not compete directly: CWM in Britain (and, perhaps, India soon), Musique Max in France and PlayNow plus in Sweden. But as these services spread and start to compete, consumers may object to the fact that they are not compatible with each other. Next, record labels may have second thoughts about appearing to allow other firms to give away their wares—even if they are, in fact, paid for behind the scenes. Subsidised subscriptions will only strengthen the widely held belief that music should be free. “They are another step in the commoditisation of music,” says David MacQueen of Strategy Analytics, a consultancy.

That said, unlimited music services could help to reduce piracy, by making it unnecessary. With services such as CWM, “the person with a hard-drive with 60,000 stolen files is all of a sudden deeply uncool, as other people have access to everything,” says Rob Wells, a senior executive at Universal, the world’s biggest record company and the label that is most keen on CWM. But they could also undermine people’s willingness to pay for CDs and music downloads from iTunes and other online stores, as avid consumers of music switch to unlimited, free services instead.

“CWM is almost too good for its own good,” says Jupiter’s Mr Mulligan. The impact of such services is uncertain; there are many details still to be worked out; and even then they will not solve all of the industry’s problems. But they are potentially a big step forward.