Playing the US cliff like euro survival

Nov 12 2012, 16:10 IST
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SummaryBattle-weary investors heading into another intense and market-sensitive period of political brinkmanship in Washington may do well to consult their European campaign maps.

least because global markets tend to correlate more highly Wall Street gyrations anyway. The temporary safety trade of U.S. Treasuries looks the easiest call for the risk averse but only for those who are increasingly yield averse too. Mainly for those in search of temporary bunkers during thinning year-end markets anyway, this week's moves show that strategy is the default move.

But if, just like opinions on euro zone survival, you believe the U.S. cliff will ultimately be avoided by some form of compromise, then many may simply close their eyes to the headlines and day trades and look at equity market lurches like this week's as potentially big buying opportunities.

And that appears to be where most asset managers appear to sit -- whether that's a complacent consensus or not. The fiscal cliff may turn out to be just a distraction. If just a short-term solution is found to the problem, markets should recover fairly quickly, said Dan Morris, global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

If tough negotiations lead to a drop in equity markets that should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

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