The NTPC stock tumbled more than 11% on Tuesday with the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission’s draft tariff regulations for 2014-19 perceived as harsh, although the regulator retained the base return of 15.5% with an additional 0.5% for timely commissioning. “The proposed regulations could erode the RoE (return on equity) of NTPC and transmission companies by as much as 4% and 0.5%, respectively,” Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a report (see table). The impact on transmission firms such as Power Grid would be less severe — perhaps 0.5% — analysts estimated, while the impact on others like NHPC and SJVN could be minimal.
Arup Roy Choudhury, chairman, NTPC, said his firm would challenge the draft regulations on three issues. “These relate to changes in the incentive scheme from PAF to PLF, the changes in heat rate incentives and plugging the tax rate arbitrage available to the company by calculating the tariff on the basis of effective tax rate rather than actual tax rate,” Choudhury said.
The regulator has proposed that incentives should now be linked to both plant availability factor (PAF) as well as plant load factor (PLF) instead of only PAF earlier. A higher normative PAF has been prescribed for transmission assets. The interest on working capital will be linked to the bank rate, currently 8.75%, compared with Tuesday’s SBI rate of 13.5%. The RoE is to be removed from working capital and the normative inventory months to be reduced.
The regulator also proposes a reduction in the normative station heat rate and secondary oil consumption, in what would necessitate an increase in energy efficiency of the plants for tariff benefits. The new regulations are applicable to all central-sector power plants and those generating stations supplying electricity to more than one state, besides inter-state transmission lines.
Several of the PSU’s plants, especially the newer ones, are currently entitled to receive tax reimbursements from the distribution companies even as these plants virtually enjoy tax holidays. These privileges would end if the new CERC norms are implemented.
The draft regulation proposes key changes