Nomura sees current account deficit 4.2%

The brokerage had earlier forecast a tempered 3.8 per cent current account deficit (CAD), the difference between country's total imports & transfers and total exports & outward transfers, for this fiscal, following steady fall in inward and outward shipments and the resultant narrowing of trade deficit in the first half of the fiscal.

In the past fiscal too CAD had hit a record of 4.2 per cent of GDP.

"With external situation remaining very worrying, we see more upside risks to our CAD projection of 3.8 per cent with the current trends suggesting that it could be as high as 4.2 per cent of GDP, which was recorded last fiscal," Nomura India economists Sonal Varma and Aman Mohunta said in a note.

However, they blamed the latest spike in imports due to the import substitution, saying, "the phenomenon of rising imports and lower domestic output can be explained by increasing import substitution as a result of supply-side constraints and elevated inflation."

The trade deficit widened to an all-time high of USD 21 billion in October from USD 18.1 billion in September due to weak exports, which declined for the sixth month in row to minus 1.6 per cent y-o-y in October and and rising imports which rose 7.4 per cent in the month.

What is worrying is the stronger imports

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