disputes for the projects that have been started but are stuck due to a lack of policy clarity about the future. Above all, the single most definitive factor that adversely affected foreign direct investment into the country — ‘The Great Indian Corruption Story’ — must be reversed once and for all.
Jobs in the financial services industry got affected over the last five years, how do you see the prospects for the same going forward?
I am of the view that at least half a million jobs were lost in this industry during the last five years, except the banking sector which was a net recruiter. If we take the insurance and investments industry, not only were jobs lost, but these otherwise attractive destinations lost their appeal among job aspirants as well. Once the overall business confidence grows, the financial services industry will be the first to regain its lost glory and will see creation of millions of jobs.
While IT, FMCG and pharma have done well in the past, where do you see growth coming from over the next three to five years and do you see the current momentum continuing?
In my view the turnaround of the business cycle will happen if we get a stable government and hence all the cyclicals will do better than any other sector. Pharma and IT are likely to underperform in relative terms if the economy turns around, whereas FMCG sector will do well. Investors must wait for couple of weeks for the election results and then bet on the cyclicals.
After five years of bad markets, there is lot of money in the hands of domestic and foreign investors who are waiting for the turnaround to park the money in equities. Such turnaround can come through triggers like an election result which is expected now. If the election results are as expected by the market, this momentum seen during the last few weeks will continue for many years unless we again seriously mess up with policies.
Where do you see Sensex or Nifty in the next five years?
If we apply the rule of 15 per cent annualised returns from equities, an investor who invested in January 2008 at Sensex levels of 21,500 should see a Sensex level of 51,000 for exit today. As the market now generally expects, if the vibrancy gets back and the bull run starts, the Sensex levels will breach 60,000 points in next