After several parts of the country getting ‘excess’ rainfall in first three months (June-August) of the monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday predicted ‘normal’ rainfall for September. “Rainfall over the country as a whole for September is likely to be normal, 90-110 % of the long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the September rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of LPA,” IMD said .
As per the IMD data, the country so far received 11% more rainfall compared to the LPA, calculated on the basis of the average annual rainfall (89 cm) recorded between 1951 and 2000.
IMD earlier predicted that rainfall during June–August would be 98% of LPA while most parts of the country, with the exception to regions such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam, have got normal to excess rainfall till now.
However for the northeast, against a forecast of 98% of LPA, the region got only 72% of the rainfall, which is considered ‘scanty’.
Key rice-growing states such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam have got rainfall deficiency of 28%, 21% and 31%, respectively.
“With the exception of northeastern regions, our forecast matches the actual rainfall received so far,” a IMD official told FE.
Central India, south peninsula and northwestern regions have received the chunk of ‘excess’ rainfall. Regions such as west MP, Vidarbha, Marthwada, Madhya Maharashtra have got excess rainfall of 69%, 58%, 16% and central Maharashtra 17%, respectively.
Besides, most of the regions have got widespread rainfall during last three months, an agriculture ministry official said.
FE reported last week that with large parts of the country getting excess rainfall in last three months of progress of monsoon, the output of kharif crop such as rice, pulses, coarse cereals and oilseeds is set to rise sharply.
Since 2005, the IMD has been been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala and its subsequent progress using an indigenously developed statistical model .
In April, science and technology minister S Jaipal Reddy, while releasing the first long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon by the IMD, said monsoon this year is most likely to be ‘normal’.