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Market outlook: CAD data & auto, cement sales nos to guide markets this week

Sep 29 2013, 12:42 IST
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SummaryThe CAD is believed to be one of the chief reasons behind the fall in the rupee in recent months.

Stock markets will likely take cues from a raft of data, including June quarter current account deficit, private surveys related to business activity and monthly sales of automobile and cement firms, in the holiday-shortened week ahead.

While benchmark indices may remain lacklustre as the next big event September quarter earnings would start only from second week of October, global developments like US debt ceiling issue and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision (October 2) may also be tracked closely.

Sensex, which closed at 3-week low of 19,727.27 on Friday, would be volatile ahead of RBI unveiling June quarter Current Account Deficit (CAD) on Monday (September 30).

The CAD is believed to be one of the chief reasons behind the fall in the rupee in recent months.

On Tuesday, auto and cement stocks will be in focus as the companies from these two sectors start announcing their monthly sales volume data for September 2013.

Besides, Market Economics will unveil September 2013 HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which captures the business activity of factories, on October 1.

Domestic markets would be closed on October 2 on account of Gandhi Jayanti.

Indian shares are likely to be influenced by the result of a monthly survey on the performance of India's services sector for September 2013 on October 4 (Friday).

"Going ahead, there are no major macro events domestically. Quarterly results will start pouring in 2 weeks' time. Going by the macro trends, results of domestically oriented companies are expected to remain subdued," said Dipen Shah, Head Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities.

On the weekly chart, Nifty is showing bearish trend in near-term and 5,800 shall be crucial deciding level in the coming sessions, said Rakesh Goyal, Senior Vice President, Bonanza Portfolio.

The movement of rupee versus dollar, crude oil prices and investment trends of overseas investors would also remain key for further market direction, experts said.

The rupee closed at 62.51 against the dollar on Friday. The local currency had collapsed to a lifetime low of 68.85 against the dollar last month but has since then shows some signs of strength.

"Markets will also watch closely the developments on the US debt ceiling issue. While it is widely expected that, more time will be borrowed to discuss the spending cuts, concerns may linger on the potential impact of any spending cuts on the US economy," Shah of Kotak Securities said.

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