Large stocks, global glut may weigh on sugar prices
deterioration in their financial profile.
Financial leverage (debt/Ebitda: 4.8x in 2012, 3.9x in 2011), based on financial data of 18 listed sugar companies, is expected to worsen as sugar margins (October 2012-September 2013) may fall to R1/kg or lower (FY12: R1-2/kg).
It is believed that the floor for domestic sugar prices (assuming the current regulations and tariffs continue) will be R30-32/kg in 2013. However, the prevailing prices may be somewhat higher than this range given the higher domestic cost of production. The cost of sugar production in 2013 will be higher than in 2012, as sugarcane price has increased 16-17% over the last season. Also, particularly for mills based in Karnataka and Maharashtra, a decline in sugarcane availability due to unfavourable climatic conditions would result in lower capacity use and, therefore, lower fixed cost absorption in 2013 than in the previous year, India Ratings said.
Unlike in 2012, the expected decline in operating margins of sugar companies in 2013 will be too steep to be adequately cushioned by margins in their byproducts' (distillery and power) business. In 2012, operating profits from byproducts as a percentage of total operating profits were around 70%.
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