Is gold’s bull-run over after 12 years of gains?

Charts show prices have held within a broad sideways trend channel since dropping from 2011’s record.

An informal survey conducted by Reuters last week showed ten out of 12 analysts still expect gold prices to set new highs both in intraday and average terms next year.

But gold bulls counting on low interest rates, heightened sovereign debt fears in the euro zone and the threat of inflation risk encountering the law of diminishing returns.

A fresh round of monetary stimulus from the US Federal Reserve last week, in the form of a pledge to buy $45 billion a month in longer-term Treasuries, failed to produce more than a few hours' worth of gains in gold.

Last time the Fed announced action on a similar scale, on September 13, it sparked a rally in gold to its highs for the year.

The troubles in the euro zone have not proved particularly positive for gold this year, due to the pressure they have put on the euro versus the dollar, strength in which tends to weigh on the price of assets denominated in the US unit.

When Spanish bond yields topped 7% in July, gold prices were still languishing around their lows for the year.

US real interest rates have been at ultra-low levels throughout the year, without driving prices significantly higher, while US and euro zone inflation expectations remain anchored despite loose monetary policy.

A rise in real interest rates is perhaps the biggest threat to stronger gold prices as they

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