Inflation may rise again

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Inflation may touch 10% by end MarchInflation up at 0.83% on higher food pricesHoarding drives food inflation by 16.32%Inflation a matter of concern: FM

New Delhi: Inflation, currently at 0.48 per cent, may again rise to around 5-5.5 per cent by this fiscal end, forcing the Reserve Bank to tighten money supply, says financial services firm Nomura.

“We expect Wholesale Price Index Inflation to rise to around 5-5.5 per cent by end of the fiscal 2009-10, against the RBI's 4 per cent target,” Nomura said in a report.

According to the firm, the economy and credit growth are expected to recover in 2010, as banks will start easing the credit restrictions.

Therefore, the country may face excess liquidity and so “we expect increasing inlfationary worries to force the RBI to start implementing exit strategies from its unconventionally loose monetary policy...with the initial focus on liquidity management,” the financial services firm said.

The RBI reduced short-term lending and borrowing rates by 4.25 per cent and 2.75 per cent respectively since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the US to infuse liquidity in the system.

The central bank will, Nomura said, initially focus on withdrawing liquidity by issuing treasury bills in the fourth quarter followed by a cash reserve ratio (mandatory cash requirement which the banks have to keep with the RBI) hike of 100 basis points in 2010.