Industrial production growth soars 8.2% in Oct, raises hopes of economic recovery

Dec 12 2012, 17:00 IST
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Industrial output soars 8.2 percent in October. (Reuters) Industrial output soars 8.2 percent in October. (Reuters)
SummaryRevised govt figures released on Wed showed Sept output growth down to 0.7%.

Spurred by robust growth in manufacturing, industrial output bounced back to 16-month high of 8.2 per cent in October raising hopes of economic recovery in the coming months.

"I am very encouraged by the indications of the green shoots in economy in terms of production. IIP figures are very encouraging," Finance Minister P Chidambaram told reporters while commenting on surge in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) to 8.2 per cent, as against contraction of 0.7 per cent in September.

The growth in the industrial production in October has been mainly on account of good performance of manufacturing, power sector and higher output of capital as well as consumer goods, suddenly revealing signs of recovery in the economy.

The manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 75 per cent of the index, grew by robust 9.6 per cent in October, as against a contraction of 6 per cent in same month last year.

However, the output of this key sector remained low at 1 per cent in the April-October period of this fiscal as against 3.8 per cent growth in the same period in 2011-12.

The factory output had contracted by 5 per cent in October last year.

The IIP had expanded by 9.5 per cent in June 2011.

Attributing part of the increase in IIP to "strong base effect", CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee said that RBI should start "reducing interest rates in January 2013, since India is currently maintaining the highest interest rate regime anywhere in the world."

Industrial output growth in the April-October period this fiscal, however, was 1.2 per cent, less than 3.6 per cent in the same period in 2011-12.

On the impact of October growth rate on GDP for the fiscal, Chidambaram said, "One swallow doesn't make a summer. There are signs of green shoots. Let us be happy about the moment. But let us see how we go forward in the next four

months".

So far this fiscal, Chidambaram said, IIP had shown positive growth only in May at 2.5 per cent and August at 2.3 per cent.

"Let's see what the next four months bring us. Investments are taking place, capacity is being created and consumption is happening in consumer durables and non-

durables," he added.

According to the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council Chairman C Rangarajan, the October IIP number is much higher than what was expected.

He said there was a need for industrial growth of about 8-9 per cent in the second half of 2012-13 to keep the economic growth at around 6 per cent this fiscal.

Capital goods output also showed remarkable improvement - up 7.5 per cent in October, as against a massive contraction of 26.5 per cent in October 2011.

However, output of capital goods has contracted in the April-October period by 11.4 per cent, as against a dip in production by 0.5 per cent in the year-ago period.

Power generation expanded by 5.5 per cent in October, compared to 5.6 per cent same month last year. The electricity generation in the April-October period is up 4.7 per cent, as against 8.9 per cent in the year-ago period.

Another segment which performed well is consumer goods as its output registered double-digit growth of 13.2 per cent in October, as against a meagre 0.1 per cent growth year ago.

During April-October this fiscal, growth in the consumer goods segment remained flat at 4 per cent.

However, mining output in October contracted by 0.1 per cent, compared to a decline in production by 5.9 per cent in same month last year. The sector's production in April-October has declined by 0.7 per cent, as against contraction of 2.2 per cent in the year-ago period.

Overall, 17 of the 22 industry groups in manufacturing sector have shown positive growth in October, compared to the same month last year.

Consumer durables is another segment which showed smart recovery by registering a growth of 16.5 per cent in October, compared to contraction of 0.4 per cent a year ago.

The output of these goods registered a growth of 5.6 per cent during April-October, as against 4.5 per cent in the same period last fiscal.

The consumer non-durables output growth also remained in double digit at 10.1 per cent in October, as against a meagre 0.5 per cent growth in the same month last year. This segment grew by 2.7 per cent in the seven month period of this fiscal,

as against 3.6 per cent during April-October, 2011-12.

The basic goods growth also improved to 4.1 per cent in October, compared to 1.2 per cent a year ago. During the April -October period, this segment recorded growth of 3 per cent, compared to 6.3 per cent in the first seven months of last

fiscal.

The contraction in the industrial production during September this year was revised downward to 0.7 per cent, from the provisional estimate of 0.4 per cent released last month.

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