India's GDP growth rate seen at 4.5 pct in Q2

Nov 27 2013, 21:09 IST
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Deutsche Bank was more optimistic and said the economy is likely to have grown 5.5 per cent in Q2 (Reuters) Deutsche Bank was more optimistic and said the economy is likely to have grown 5.5 per cent in Q2 (Reuters)
SummaryGDP growth rate may have improved from the 4.4 pct logged in Q1: ICRA

After a sluggish first quarter, India's GDP growth rate may have expanded by about 4.5 per cent in the July-September period on the back of rising exports and a good monsoon helping industrial recovery, experts said.

The second-quarter GDP numbers are scheduled to be announced on November 29.

"GDP growth rate would have improved to 4.6 per cent in Q2 from 4.4 per cent in Q1, with a pick-up in the performance of industry at around 2.3 per cent from 0.2 per cent and agriculture at near 3.5 per cent from 2.7 per cent, which could have offset the slowdown in the services sector," ICRA Ltd said in a report.

ICRA, an associate of Moody's Investors Service, said the Index of Industrial Production indicates a mild improvement in manufacturing and mining & quarrying in Q2 from the previous quarter.

"While investment activity remained muted and consumption confidence weakened, the performance of merchandise exports improved considerably in Q2 relative to Q1," it said.

As per FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey, GDP growth was 4.5 per cent in Q2.

Dun & Bradstreet said economic expansion in India is expected at about 4.5 per cent during Q2 and it is further likely to remain weak during the remaining fiscal.

Deutsche Bank was more optimistic and said the economy is likely to have grown 5.5 per cent in Q2 on the good monsoon, higher industrial growth and an increase in public spending.

"While expectations remain poor, we estimate that real GDP rose by 5.5 per cent during the quarter, the best performance in a year," the bank said in a note.

India's economic growth hit a decade low of 5 per cent in 2012-13 on account of poor performances in the farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.

The Reserve Bank expects GDP to expand 5 per cent in the current financial year, while the government estimates growth at between 5 and 5.5 per cent.

Both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have lowered their growth forecasts for India in 2013-14.

The IMF projected an average growth rate of about 3.75 per cent at market prices. The World Bank slashed its growth forecast to 4.7 per cent from an earlier projection of 6.1 per cent.

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