India's 'cyclical sweet spot' to extend bond rally: Credit Suisse

Jan 07 2013, 10:51 IST
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Credit Suisse expects the 10-year yield to fall to as low as 7.5 percent by mid-2013.  (Reuters) Credit Suisse expects the 10-year yield to fall to as low as 7.5 percent by mid-2013. (Reuters)
SummaryCredit Suisse expects core and headline inflation to drop below 4% and 6% respectively, by mid-2013.

Credit Suisse says India is in a "cyclical sweet spot" that will help local currency sovereign bonds rally further and also boost the rupee.

Credit Suisse sees no "statistically robust evidence" of a structural increase in inflation, and expects core and headline WPI to drop below 4 percent and 6 percent, respectively, by mid-2013.

The investment bank says drop in market interest rates, diminishing lagged effects of higher policy rates, weaker rupee and the government's reforms mean economic growth has bottomed.

Stronger growth bodes well for a lower fiscal deficit, while the government could surprise many with a tighter-than-expected February budget, says note.

Credit Suisse expects the 10-year yield to fall to as low as 7.5 percent by mid-2013 as the bank sticks to its view the RBI will cut interest rates by 125 basis points (bps) by 2013/14, with 50 bps of it coming on Jan 29.

Though not "structurally positive" on the currency, the investment bank is looking at a brief rally with the rupee at 53.5/dollar in March before dropping back to 56.5/dollar by end-2013.

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