Indian rupee to US dollar: 61.60/80 range to last from 7-to-10 days

Jan 08 2014, 18:07 IST
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On the home front, Indian trade number for the month of December will be key for the Indian rupee to the US dollar movement. On the home front, Indian trade number for the month of December will be key for the Indian rupee to the US dollar movement.
SummaryFor nearly a month now, that the Indian rupee, US dollar pair has been caught within a range of 61.50 and 62.50 on spot.

For nearly a month now, that the Indian rupee, US dollar pair has been caught within a range of 61.50 and 62.50 on spot.

Exporters are keen on offloading US dollars closer to 62.50 as demand from oilers and importers have been seen between 61.60/80 levels on spot. We can see the pair stay within this range for week to ten days.

Over this week keep an eye on the macro data from US, where in, December jobs data will be a key data point.

On the home front, Indian trade number for the month of December will be key for the Indian rupee, as in November 2013, export growth had slowed to 5.85 pct from double digit rate clocked over the previous 4 months.

In case, export growth once again disappoints in December, then we can expect a negative reaction by the Indian rupee.

At the same time, we expect the uptick in the FII inflows in the bond market to continue, as inflation trajectory is expected to reverse.

By Anindya Banerjee, currency analyst, Kotak Securities

NOTE: The views expressed are those of the author

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