Indian rupee seen opening weaker against the US dollar; RBI intervention watched

Jul 01 2014, 08:54 IST
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The Indian rupee fell on Monday, posting its first quarterly fall in three. (Reuters) The Indian rupee fell on Monday, posting its first quarterly fall in three. (Reuters)
SummaryIndian rupee is expected to fall from its previous close of 60.17/18 against the US dollar...

Indian rupee is expected to fall from its previous close of 60.17/18 against the US dollar, tracking gains in Asian currencies and stocks.

However, dealers say the rupee will continue to remain in a tight range on geopolitical tension in Iraq and suspected central bank intervention.

The pair currently seen trading at 60.07/09 in the offshore spot non-deliverable forwards traded in Singapore. The pair is seen remaining in a 59.90 to 60.50 range during the session.

The Indian rupee fell on Monday, posting its first quarterly fall in three as suspected intervention by the central bank continues to prevent the currency from gaining much above 60 to the dollar.

Most Asian currencies trading stronger against the US dollar.

The dollar languished at seven-week lows against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, having extended a month-long decline after a recent batch of mixed data cast doubts on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Traders will monitor the domestic share market for clues on the direction of foreign fund flows. The Nifty India stock futures traded in Singapore currently trading 0.36 percent higher.

Asian shares were off to a cautious start near a three-year high on Tuesday while the U.S. dollar was listless as investors took new bets that U.S. monetary policy will stay loose for some time.

India Morning Call-Global Markets

EQUITIES

NEW YORK - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indexes wrapped up a sixth straight quarter of gains on Monday, a streak not seen in more than 14 years.

The three major U.S. stock indexes, however, closed little changed for the day, following a set of mixed economic data.

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LONDON - Britain's top equity index slipped lower on Monday, with budget airline easyJet the worst-performing stock as it felt the effect of a broker downgrade.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 index ended down by 0.2 percent, or 13.83 points, at 6,743.94 points - down more than 2 percent from its 2014 peak of 6,894.88 in May, which marked its highest level since December 1999.

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TOKYO - Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday as upbeat China factory reports offset some weak spots in the Bank of Japan tankan survey.

Big Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment worsened in the three months to June but is poised to improve in the following quarter, the central bank survey showed.

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HONG KONG - Hong Kong financial markets are closed on Tuesday for a public holiday and will resume trading on Wednesday.

The holiday marks the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day.

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FOREIGN EXCHANGE

SYDNEY - The dollar languished at seven-week lows against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, having extended a month-long decline after a recent batch of mixed data cast doubts on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the U.S. central bank will probably need to keep interest rates near zero for at least another year, even as he expressed optimism the economy is on the recovery path.

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TREASURIES

NEW YORK - U.S. Treasuries prices rose modestly on Monday on month-end buying and reluctance to sell ahead of quarter-end and U.S. jobs data on Thursday, putting bond prices on track for gains in the first half of the year.

Analysts said traders avoided bets against bonds after rising prices over the quarter took many by surprise.

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COMMODITIES

GOLD

SINGAPORE - Gold was trading near its highest in 2-1/2 months on Tuesday, as a softer dollar and escalating violence in Iraq increased the metal's appeal.

Spot gold slipped slightly to $1,325.66 an ounce by 0020 GMT. It gained nearly 1 percent in the previous session, after hitting a peak of $1,329.10 - the metal's highest since mid April.

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BASE METALS

SYDNEY - London copper hit its loftiest in nearly four months on Tuesday and zinc approached its highest in almost three years, both propped up by shrinking supply and expansion in China's vast factory sector.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange edged up by 0.1 percent to $7,024 a tonne by 0115 GMT after closing little changed in the previous session. It earlier hit its highest since March 7 at $7,028 a tonne.

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OIL

NEW YORK - Brent futures held above $112 a barrel on Tuesday as investor attention shifted back to demand after China's factory growth rose to a six-month high, adding to signs the economy of the world's second-biggest oil consumer is regaining strength.

Oil markets have for weeks been rattled by supply concerns due to the Ukraine crisis and as a takeover of large areas of Iraq by Sunni militants stoked fears of disruption in exports from OPEC's second-biggest producer amid unsteady shipments from Libya and others. As those fears recede somewhat, investors are looking for fresh clues to gauge the direction of the market.

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