Indian rupee against US dollar: 3 headwinds and key events

Jan 31 2014, 13:46 IST
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Investors are worried that Indian rupee remains vulnerable to a protracted emerging markets (EM) sell off. Investors are worried that Indian rupee remains vulnerable to a protracted emerging markets (EM) sell off.
SummaryThe India Rupee has fallen less relative to peers in the emerging markets since US Fed tapering.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, investors favour the Indian rupee among the so-called ‘fragile five’ (Brazil, India, Indonesia, S Africa, Turkey) currencies. The rupee has depreciated relatively less than most BRICs and TIMS (Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa) in this round of FX volatility. However, investors are worried that India remains vulnerable to a protracted emerging markets (EM) sell off. The rupee can test Rs 68/$ levels again in case the US Dollar appreciates to 1.20/euro levels.

rupee

The Indian rupee is staring at three headwinds:

* Maturity of forex swaps with oil firms of $7 billion in February-April. OMCs have already covered up to 50% of the oil swaps that come due in Feb-March

* Bank/corporate forex repayments of $4.8 billion in March.

* Withdrawal of gold import curbs after March with inventories running down.

Key events to determine rupee’s sway

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, investors favour the Indian rupee among the so-called ‘fragile five’ (Brazil, India, Indonesia, S Africa, Turkey) currencies. The rupee has depreciated relatively less than most BRICs and TIMS (Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa) in this round of FX volatility. However, investors are worried that India remains vulnerable to a protracted emerging markets (EM) sell off. The rupee can test R 68/$ levels again in case the US Dollar appreciates to 1.20/euro levels.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Haver Analytics, IMF, BIS

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