Indian economy: 5 top factors at work

Sep 01 2014, 15:45 IST
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On the expenditure side, real private consumption expenditure grew by 5.6%. GFCF grew by 7% on a real basis, sharply reversing a contraction of 0.9% in 4QFY14. (AP Photo) On the expenditure side, real private consumption expenditure grew by 5.6%. GFCF grew by 7% on a real basis, sharply reversing a contraction of 0.9% in 4QFY14. (AP Photo)
SummaryGDP growth—slow recovery is best. GDP growth of 5.7% was expected to be higher than in earlier quarters.

1. GDP growth in India—slow recovery is best.

GDP growth of 5.7% was expected to be higher than in earlier quarters as manufacturing and electricity generation in 1QFY15 were better than in 4QFY14. However, given structural constraints, the expected investment cycle pick-up will take time. Besides, with no monetary policy accommodation expected for a long time, we do not expect FY2015 GDP growth to be any better than 5.6% (higher by 30 bps from our earlier forecast). If the policy momentum continues, FY2016 growth can pick up to ~6%. Read Full Report

2. Industry pushes up 1QFY15 GDP

1QFY15 GDP growth expectedly increased to 5.7%, with a pick-up evident in industrial production to 4.2% (-0.2% in 4QFY14). Manufacturing sector growth was 3.5% (-1.4% in 4QFY14) and electricity sector growth was 10.2% (7.2% in 4QFY14). On the services side, growth was muted at 6.8% (6.4% in 4QFY14), symptomatic of continuing poor consumption demand (“Trade, hotel, transport and communication” grew by just 2.8%). The saving grace for services was “Community, social and personal services”, which grew at 9.1%.

On the expenditure side, real private consumption expenditure grew by 5.6%. GFCF grew by 7% on a real basis, sharply reversing a contraction of 0.9% in 4QFY14. However, this data needs to be viewed with some caution as it was against a very low base in 1QFY14.

3. Stabilization in progress—macro-economic numbers appear better

The growth trajectory in FY2015 has started on an improved note, providing the sense that the worst may actually be over. First, the external environment appears better and even as global challenges remain, the degree of risk aversion of the previous years is unlikely to repeat. This implies that exogenous shocks to the domestic economy will be limited. Besides, with improving global growth, exports growth is in positive territory (see Exhibit 1).

On the domestic front, the formation of a stable political system has led to improvement in business sentiment while the PMI has moved to the +50 zone, depicting expansion (see Exhibits 2 and 3). Automobile sales have turned the corner and tourist arrivals have improved (see Exhibits 4 and 5). Financial markets have reacted positively to the new government and this is expected to have a positive impact on the real sector.

4. Challenges remain—growth-inflation dynamics and natural resource availability

Even as inflation has come off significantly from its peak, the pace of likely contraction

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