India’s rating outlook stable, says Moody’s

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fe Bureau: New Delhi, Nov 28 2012, 00:58 IST
On a day the OECD cut its global growth forecast for 2012 sharply to 2.9% from the May prediction of 3.4% citing the euro zone debt crisis as the greatest downside risk and the concern over the US fiscal cliff, India got a reprieve as Moody’s Investors Service said its Baa3 rating for the country is stable. The Indian government is struggling to energise revenue streams in a slowing economy in order to keep this year’s fiscal deficit at 5.3%. OECD also projected India’s growth this fiscal at 4.4% (against 6.9% in 2011-12) citing the "broad-based slowdown".

The move by Moody’s, which it said doesn’t constitute a rating action, comes in the shadow of the perceived threat of a rating downgrade by other credit rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s. Fitch also has a negative outlook on India.

Moody’s ascribed its decision to maintain its stable outlook on India to the country’s high household savings rate and relatively competitive private sector. These two factors, the agency said, will “ultimately raise the GDP growth rate from around 5.4% in FY 2013 to 6% or higher in FY 2014”.

The agency, however, added: "The rating is constrained by the credit challenges posed by India’s poor social and physical infrastructure, high government deficit and debt ratios, recurrent inflationary pressures and an uncertain operating environment."

On the global front, there was encouraging news on Monday with the IMF and euro zone finance ministers reaching an agreement on a new debt target for Greece, entailing immediate release of

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