Growth pangs: Q1 GDP numbers likely to reaffirm slowing trend
“Industry has performed poorly but farm sector is likely to give some cushion taking the overall GDP growth to about 5.2 to 5.4 per cent,” said a person familiar with the development.
The first quarter (April to June) GDP data for 2012-13 are scheduled to be released on Friday by the Central Statistics Office. Anticipation of weak growth numbers have already spooked investors who are worried that the economy may have fared worse than the fourth quarter of last fiscal when it touched a nine-year low.
From January to March 2011-12, the GDP grew at a mere 5.3 per cent with manufacturing dipping by 0.3 per cent. While agriculture registered a growth of 1.7 per cent, financing, insurance, real estate and business services grew by 10 per cent. “Industrial production slumped in the second half of last fiscal and the trend is likely to continue for some more months. Government measures could have an effect post October from when we could see better growth,” he said.
Factory output dipped by 1.8 per cent in June. Led by high interest rates and dampened demand, the Index of Industrial Production shrunk by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of the fiscal.
In recent weeks, a host of research agencies and analysts