Gold set to breach Rs 15,000-mark by Diwali

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Gold softens on fall in demandRBI buys 200 MT gold from IMFGold at record high of Rs 16,254/10 gmGold edges higher to Rs 15,916 per 10 gms

Mumbai, October 10:: India's gold is in sight of 15,000 rupees per 10 grams by the end of October after Friday's life high, when two festivals most auspicious for buying gold are lined up, Diwali and Dhanteras, analysts and a dealer said.

Dhanteras falls on Oct. 26 and Diwali a couple of days later.

"All the volatility is driving capital away from currency and equity and it has nowhere to go but to gold," said Kishore Narne, vice president - commodities at Anand Rathi Commodities.

"Maybe in the next 15 to 20 days, gold could go to 15,000 rupees."

A weaker rupee is making gold pricier too, with the local unit notching its lowest level on Friday on fears of an outflow of funds from equity markets.

"Gold at 15,000 rupees is not impossible given the way things are," said Pinakin Vyas, chief manager - treasury at the bullion selling bank, IndusInd Bank Ltd.

"I don't see the rupee appreciating much because of the continuous demand for the dollar from investors," Vyas said.

In the international market, gold recorded its all-time high on March 17 at $1,030.80 an ounce before the credit crisis in the U.S. snowballed into a global problem.

But in the local market, gold struck its all-time high on Friday at 14,320 rupees per 10 grams in the futures market and above 14,700 rupees in the spot market.

"The international market has a lot more room to go higher, that means more upside is possible for gold here," said Somnath Dey, incharge of metals and energy research at Religare Commodities Ltd, referring to the spot price at $917 an ounce that was much below the March high.

READING THE SIGNS

"Everyone knew that a credit crisis was coming, what surprised them now was the extent of the meltdown," Anand Rathi's Narne said.

In a July Reuters poll of 14 banks and brokerages, two of the respondents, including Anand Rathi had seen gold above 15,000 rupees by end-December.

Only softening crude oil and further government interventions to prop up the Indian rupee could keep gold below the 15,000 rupees levels, analysts said.

"I don't think the government will allow the rupee to fall below 49 to a dollar," said Bhargav Vaidya, a precious metals analyst. "Gold may briefly touch 15,000 around Diwali and then fall."

Local consumers would shun gold at 15,000 rupees, choosing to take profits instead, and that would bring down prices, said Vaidya.