Gold prices could touch Rs 15,000 by Diwali, say analysts

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Mumbai, Oct 10 : India's gold is in sight of Rs 15,000 per 10 grams by the end of October after Friday’s life-high, when two festivals most auspicious for buying gold are lined up, Diwali and Dhanteras, analysts and a dealer said. Dhanteras falls on October 26 and Diwali follows a couple of days later. “All the volatility is driving capital away from currency and equity and it has nowhere to go, but to gold,” said Kishore Narne, vice-president, commodities, Anand Rathi Commodities. “Maybe in the next 15 to 20 days, gold could go to Rs 15,000.”

A weaker rupee is making gold pricier too, with the local unit notching its lowest level on Friday on fears of an outflow of funds from equity markets. “Gold at Rs 15,000 is not impossible given the way things are,” said Pinakin Vyas, chief manager, treasury at bullion selling bank, IndusInd Bank Ltd. “I don't see the rupee appreciating much, because of the continuous demand for the dollar from investors,” Vyas said.

In the international market, gold recorded an all-time high on March 17 at $1,030.80 an ounce before the credit crisis in the US snowballed into a global problem. But in the local market, gold struck its all-time high on Friday at Rs 14,320 per 10 gm in the futures market and above Rs 14,700 in the spot market.

“The international market has a lot more room to go higher, that means more upside is possible for gold here,” said Somnath Dey, incharge of metals and energy research at Religare Commodities Ltd, referring to the spot price at $917 an ounce that was much below the high in March .

“Everyone knew that a credit crisis was coming, what surprised them now was the extent of the meltdown,” Anand Rathi’s Narne said. In a July Reuters poll of 14 banks and brokerages, two of the respondents, including Anand Rathi, had seen gold above Rs 15,000 rupees by end-December.

Only softening crude oil and further government interventions to prop up the Indian rupee could keep gold below the Rs 15,000- levels, analysts said. “I don't think the government will allow the rupee to fall below 49 to a dollar,” said Bhargav Vaidya, a precious metals analyst. “Gold may briefly touch Rs 15,000 around Diwali and then fall.”