GDP pegged at 7.5% on US recovery

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New Delhi: The Indian economy is likely to see an economic growth of roughly 7-7.50% during the financial year 2009-10, in the midst of a bottoming out in the US economy by September 2009, and a normal monsoon, said the finance ministry during the Economic Survey on Thursday.

“The speed at which the Indian economy returns to a high growth path in the short-term depends on the revival of the global economy, particularly the US economy, and the government’s capacity to push some critical policy reforms in the coming months,” said the Economic Survey.

The pattern of fiscal 2008-09 may be repeated in that case, though in an inverse sequence, with two not-so-good quarters followed by two good quarters making a ‘U’-shaped revival of the growth path, it added.

“A lot depends on how the global economy pans out. If the global recovery takes shape, then the Indian economy has the potential to grow. However, there are uncertainties on the timing as to when the global recovery may happen,” said Shubhda Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank. She also noted that the recovery of the Indian economy will be seen only after October 2009. “It is too early to say that the economy has bounced back. While there are some signs of recovery across some of the sectors like consumption, the growth is not as strong as it used to be,” she said.

The economic growth decelerated in 2008-09 to 6.7% from 9% in 2007-08.

Meanwhile, the Survey also said that with the recovery of the global economy from the current slowdown, given the growth dynamics of the economy, India should be back on the new trend growth path of 8.5-9% in the medium-term, provided the critical policy and institutional bottlenecks are removed. “It is therefore imperative that the government revisit the agenda for pending economic reforms in the first instance, with a view to renew the growth momentum,” said the survey tabled by the finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee.

The Indian economy grew at 9% or more in the three years that ended in March 2008.

Talking about the declining trend in trade deficit, the survey said that with reasonable invisible account surplus, which has been an attribute of the Indian economy for the last several years, the economy may end up with a current account surplus of 0.3-2.8% of GDP in 2009-10.