Markets: Eerie calm

Markets: Eerie calm

it is not clear when market sentiment can change; as in the past, it can be quite sudden.
At a turn and yet not

At a turn and yet not

RBI could be tempted to cut policy rate to support growth at its bi-monthly review.

GDP growth seen at 5.4-5.9% in 2014-15: Economic Survey

Jul 09 2014, 16:47 IST
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Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has tabled the pre-budget Economic Survey in Lok Sabha. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has tabled the pre-budget Economic Survey in Lok Sabha.
SummaryImprovement in current account and fiscal deficits to spur higher growth in 2014-15, says survey.

Indian economy is likely to grow in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent in 2014-15 overcoming the sub-5 per cent GDP growth of past two years, even as poor monsoon and disturbed external environment remain a cause for concern, says the Economic Survey.

"The growth slowdown in the last two years was broad based, affecting in particular the industry sector. Inflation too declined during this period, but continued to be above the comfort zone, owing primarily to the elevated level of food inflation", said the Survey for 2013-14 tabled by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Parliament today.

The Survey, released a day ahead of the budget for 2014-15, expects that moderation in inflation will ease the monetary policy stance and revive the confidence of investors.

"...with the global economy expected to recover moderately, particularly on account of performance in some advanced economies, the economy can look forward to better growth prospects in 2014-15 and beyond," it said.

As regards the downside risks, the Survey lists factors like poor monsoon, the external environment and the poor investment climate. They can have a bearing on the growth recovery, it added.

After recovering in 2009-10 and 2010-11, GDP growth slowed down to decade's low of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13. It picked up marginally to 4.7 per cent in 2013-14.

The Survey further said the measures taken by the government to improve investment climate and improve governance could push up growth to 7-8 per cent in the coming years.

The priority of the new government, the Survey said, should be to revive business sentiments "that could be at the heart of restarting the investment cycle."

Regaining growth momentum requires restoration of domestic macroeconomic balance and enhancing efficiency, it said, adding, "to this end, the emphasis of policy would have to remain on fiscal consolidation and removal of structural constraints."

"Though some measures have been initiated to this end, reversion to a growth rate of around 7-8 per cent can only occur beyond the ongoing and the next fiscal," it added.

Apart from fiscal consolidation, maintaining a stable external balance and further control of inflation, priorities for growth revival should also include streamlining of implementation procedures to restart the investment cycle and simplification of tax policy.

The Survey also made a case for repealing of archaic laws governing market access, expansion and entry/exit of

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