'Fresh China stimulus unlikely soon'
On balance we're seeing some green shoots and an expectation next year that the GDP growth rate will have an 8 in front of it, at least 8 percent, maybe on the low side of that, Tulpule said.
Among those green shoots, he pointed to recent data showing a pick-up in containers in ports and rail cargo turnover in September, a rise in housing sales, and an increase in credit from new financing sources.
Rio is sticking to its view outlined earlier this year for Chinese growth to average 7-8 percent from 2015-2020 and slowing to 5-6 percent growth beyond 2020, but said it was likely to be a volatile path towards slower growth as the Chinese economy evolves from being investment driven to consumer driven.
There are some uncertainties about the future, he said.
By comparison, top global iron ore miner Vale now sees China's economy growing at 6-7 percent a year over the rest of this decade. BHP Billiton sees China's annual growth averaging 7-8 percent over the next decade.
Rio Tinto sees Chinese steel production peaking at 1 billion tonnes a year around 2030, slightly later than earlier forecasts for it to peak at that level around 2025.
Tulpule warned that if the United States failed to find a solution to the fiscal cliff it would not only shave U.S. demand for commodities, but would have a bigger impact in terms of contagion in financial
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