Given the October index of industrial production (IIP) was a huge aberration, thanks largely to a change in the month Diwali was celebrated this year, it’s not surprising that November output contracted by 0.1%. Like all IIP data, the November data has its fair share of imponderables—after exhibiting unexplained high growth since November 2011, publishing contracted 22% in November 2012. But the industry sector growth—and that includes construction—seems to be on track for a 3%-plus growth in FY13. If that happens, though, it’s worth keeping in mind, that will still be much lower than the average of 7.9% in the last decade, and less than half the two-decade average of 6.9%. Capital goods, as can be seen from the order books of most producer firms, continued on its downward dive—it contracted 7.7% in November. Consumer goods seem to have stabilised a bit at a 1% growth in the month while non-durables slowed to a near-standstill at 0.3%.
Much of this, of course, is easily corroborated from other data. Passenger cars grew just 1% in April to November while commercial vehicles contracted 5.6%. Deposits growth in the fortnight ended December 28 grew at 11.1%, a lower growth than that seen in many years. Exports, similarly, continued to fall for the 8th straight month, though the rate of fall seems to have slowed—December exports fell just 1.9% yoy compared to a fall of 4.2% in November. That November's 0.1% contraction was on an unusually high growth of November 2011 suggests some bottoming out.