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: Sometime tomorrow we will know whether the UPA government survived the trust vote. If it doesn’t, some or many Congressmen may blame Manmohan Singh somewhat openly and Sonia Gandhi sotto voce. These critics won’t be mollified by the argument that the gamble of going ahead with nuclear deal negotiations and, therefore, engendering a trust vote was well worth it even if the government didn’t survive, because at stake was the Congress’s ability to make policy. Politics, not policy, and vote prospects, not Rahul Gandhi’s ‘if the government goes, so be it’ line are what will bother these unhappy Congressmen. They should know that even by cold political logic, where principles have very little place, a trust vote loss would be better than continuing with the arrangement the UPA was born under. First, as all MPs know, the opportunity cost for facing elections has gone down because scheduled polls are only a few months away. Second, going to the polls a few months later with the Left as a partner would have given the Congress no benefits—the Left and the Congress would have fought each other in Bengal and Kerala and the Left counts for zero everywhere else. Plus, Marxists, despite a full term alliance, would have still trashed the Congress as well as claimed credit for blocking an international agreement the Congress’s prime minister and party president wanted.
Third, the Congress bowing to the Left until the end of the term would have been politically less rewarding post-poll because the Left is likely to get far fewer seats in the next general election. Fourth, assuming that the trust vote is lost and the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance survives that defeat, the Congress has at least something in UP. Yes, pundits are saying Mayawati will be queen in the general elections, too. But a decimated Congress alone in UP is surely a worse prospect than a Congress allying with the runner up in the state’s politics. Fifth, the Congress has spent four years not standing for anything and therefore not really endearing itself to voters. This political drama, even if it ends in a loss, can be easily and justifiably turned into an advertisement for the Congress showing some spine. Sixth, if some very senior Congressmen get really upset and refuse to see all this and create a big showdown about the trust vote loss, maybe the party can then gather enough excuse/courage to keep them out of its next plans. That will really benefit the Congress.
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